Over 99.9% of Studies Agree: Humans Have Caused Climate Change on Earth
If you're wondering just how much scientific consensus there is that humans have caused the climate of our planet to change, we can now put a number on it: 99.9 percent.
That doesn't leave much room for doubt. To get to that figure, researchers looked in detail at a total of 3,000 peer-reviewed studies randomly selected from a list of 88,125 climate related papers published since 2012, finding that just four of them expressed any doubt that human activity is leading to shifts in Earth's climate.
The last time a similar study was done, looking at papers published between 1991 and 2012, there was 97 percent certainty – so it would appear that the small level of skepticism is continuing to shrink over time.
"We are virtually certain that the consensus is well over 99 percent now and that it's pretty much case closed for any meaningful public conversation about the reality of human-caused climate change," says Mark Lynas, the climate lead of the Alliance for Science at Cornell University in New York.
Despite the almost universal agreement among the scientific community, more than 1 in 3 people in the US don't think that global warming – one of the main symptoms of climate change – is mainly attributable to human activity. There is also doubt among certain political circles.
Besides the detailed look at 3,000 papers, the team also used an algorithm based on keywords to rank the entire database of 88,125 papers in order of anthropogenic climate-change skepticism, resulting in 28 labeled as being implicitly or explicitly 'skeptical'.
That's similar to the level of consensus on plate tectonics or evolution, the team says – and the sheer number of studies that have been analyzed leave little room for argument when it comes to debating the science of climate change.
"To understand where a consensus exists, you have to be able to quantify it," says Lynas.
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